Look, I know this might sound crazy, but my goal is just to be marginally less stupid with each passing day.
Part of that is looking back at my own behavior and figuring out where I went wrong. This inspired me to dig into my own sentiment data and what I found was pretty clear.
Although I thought myself immune, I was getting pulled into whatever the main narrative was at the time.
The best example of this was options.
As volatility in MSTR picked up, I got really interested. Started learning, started tweeting about it more… and then a lot more. And if you look at the timing, it’s kind of brutal. The moment I was most focused on options was basically the worst time to be buying them.
The information was good.
The timing was hot garbage.
At the same time, my focus shifted. I was talking less about Bitcoin and way more about MSTR. Which is kind of crazy, because Bitcoin is the thing I actually care about long-term. But in the moment, I got pulled into what was exciting, what was volatile, what was getting engagement.
It felt productive, but it was also reactive.
So two takeaways for me:
First, be careful with whatever the market is obsessed with. The louder the narrative, the more you should probably question it.
Second, when you look at newer users vs OGs, there’s a big difference in how they experience the market. Newer participants are way more confused during big moves (things like ETF approvals or major run-ups) while OGs are a lot more steady.
You even see that line up with my own behavior.
I’m not trying to trade off this or predict price with it.
I just want a more accurate worldview.
If I can catch myself getting pulled into the narrative in real time, that’s a win.
Because at the end of the day, I’m just trying to be a little bit less stupid tomorrow than I am today.
