Bitcoin is going to a million dollars a coin.
But not everybody in the Bitcoin ecosystem is talking about that at the same rate.
In this video, I wanted to explore how different cohorts of people in Bitcoin talk about different price levels, and whether any interesting differences would surface once I compared the language directly.
As with all of the sentiment analysis and language analysis I’ve been doing so far, I looked across a bunch of different Bitcoin-related accounts and grouped people into different cohorts.
The first comparison is between Bitcoin traders and Bitcoiners more broadly.
The traders are still people in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but they’re more likely to talk about buying, selling, entries, exits, targets, and specific trade setups. They’re not always just pure Bitcoin maximalists stacking forever.
And what came to the surface pretty quickly was interesting.
The average Bitcoiner talks about a million dollars a coin way more often than the traders do. Same thing with 100k. Those higher, more bullish price levels show up much more often in the broader Bitcoiner cohort.
That makes sense.
Traders are usually talking about much more specific price levels they’re targeting. They’re thinking more about entries, downside levels, support zones, and places they might buy or sell.
But that also brings me to the main takeaway here.
Bitcoin traders, as a percentage of their total price-level tweets, seem to be talking way more frequently about much lower Bitcoin prices.
You see some of this around 90k, but the really interesting part is way farther down the chart. The 30k and 40k levels came up at a much higher mention rate among traders than they did among broader Bitcoiners.
And when I zoomed in on just the last three months, this became even more pronounced.
Instead of looking at the full year, I looked only at recent price-level mentions, around where Bitcoin has actually been trading lately. And in that shorter window, the gap got even bigger.
Traders were talking about 30k and 40k almost double, or more than double, the rate of broader Bitcoiners.
So, on average, these traders are really targeting these low levels.
And I think they’re fucking delusional.
The second comparison in this video is between Bitcoin traders and Bitcoin Treasury investors.
By Bitcoin Treasury investors, I mean people deep in the MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet, and Bitcoin treasury company world.
And right away, this group looked arguably even more bullish than the traders.
The million-dollar Bitcoin level showed up much more with Treasury investors. Some of that is obviously bullposting, but I still think it’s interesting that this cohort is spending way more language on the higher price levels.
That same trend continues across other higher targets too.
Treasury investors seem much more focused on the upside levels, while traders are again talking way more often about the lower levels like 60k, 40k, and 30k.
And at those lower levels, the difference gets even more extreme than it was in the earlier comparisons.
This language-based cohort analysis stuff has been one of the most interesting rabbit holes I’ve gone down so far.
It’s one thing to say different groups in Bitcoin have different views. It’s another thing to actually look at the words they use, the price levels they mention, and the way those patterns change across time.
If you have other cohorts, groups, or specific individuals you want me to run through this kind of analysis, hit me up.
I’ll gladly check them out.
And thank you to everyone who came up to me at the Bitcoin conference to talk about all this crazy sentiment stuff. This has been a trip for me.
If you want to see more of it, I have a full archive linked here on Substack.
And as always, stay bullish.
