Happy Friday crew.
I wanted to take some time this morning because I’m in a very good mood and the sun is shining to show you one of the most optimistic things I’ve been seeing out there in the sentiment data.
As you all know, I have a bunch of different cohorts of Bitcoiners that I like to analyze closely.
Today we’re going to look at what I think might be the highest-signal one.
These are people I’ve been calling Bitcoin pragmatists.
They’re not always bullish. They’re not always bearish. In aggregate, they are much more optimistic about Bitcoin over the long term, but they’re not always euphoric.
And if you look at the Bitcoin price and some of the price action since 2023, you can kind of see this playing out.
In the two lines below, I have the gray line, which represents the average newer Bitcoin user, the pleb, so to speak. The smaller Bitcoin accounts.
And in the red and green, we have the Bitcoin pragmatists, where you can watch the levels of optimism in the language they’ve used over time.
During this entire duration of the bear market, this cohort of users has traditionally been much more accurate at estimating the Bitcoin price.
They were a little bit more muted at tops. They were very muted through the bear market.
And then when the price inflection began to switch, they became disproportionately bullish, using a lot more optimistic language.
This settled off after price chopped. And even when price rocketed up to all-time highs, this cohort was more muted, more subdued.
That’s very reflective of why I’ve been watching this group so closely.
The more I’ve analyzed their data, the more I’ve seen that they deviate from the average Bitcoin user in interesting ways at interesting inflection points.
When things are overheated, they’re a little bit more muted.
You can see this trend continue in how deviations exist at tops between the average smaller Bitcoin account compared to this cohort, who might be a little bit of a wiser investor, perhaps.
They deviate again when we reach all-time highs and start breaking through. They tend to be more optimistic there.
And then you can see a very wide gap right before the last sell-off.
Which brings me to today, and why I wanted to share this little optimistic piece of information with you.
As you can see, after the sell-off, they’ve been continually more optimistic than the average user.
Where sentiment among the smaller Bitcoin accounts has been trending down and to the right, these guys have been consistently more bullish.
This is also reflected in the fact that long-term holders have been buying Bitcoin at a crazy rate recently.
But I thought it was interesting looking at the sentiment language too, because these people are still bullish. And in the past, this group has been a good representation of what can happen before serious run-ups.
Anyway, that’s all I’ve got for you today.
I just wanted to drop in quick because I’m seeing a ton of crypto traders out there claiming we’re going to see price levels down to the $30k and $40k range, like they know what’s going on and they’re the wise and educated ones in these markets.
But some of the most high-value users I’ve been watching do not agree with them.
And it makes me pretty optimistic when they’re optimistic.
