After my last video analyzing narratives across the Bitcoin treasury space, I had a bunch of people calling me bearish on Metaplanet.
That could not be farther from the truth.
I wanted to pull up this same chart again, which displays Metaplanet in green versus MSTR. What this is looking at is the rate at which each of these companies is mentioned across the Bitcoin ecosystem over time.
If I were to map the price of MSTR or Metaplanet over each of these mention rates, you would see an incredibly tight correlation.
As I pull forward here, you can see that right now, the amount Metaplanet is talked about is really low compared to the amount MSTR is being talked about. That makes sense too when we look at the price charts for each one.
First, here is Strategy.
Looking at the boring period back here, when the narrative mention rate was extremely low, then into the summer chop, the big blow-off in 2024, and back to where things are right now, you can see how tightly narrative attention has tracked the price action.
Despite coming close to $100 per share, MSTR is now up nearly 80% from the lows and is sitting in a pretty good spot.
Metaplanet, on the other hand, is much more muted. It does have the same euphoria cycle, arguably at a much higher rate than MSTR. This blow-off was incredible for anybody who lived through it. But more recently, it has been very flat and has not seen anywhere near the run-up that MicroStrategy has.
But Sully, I thought you said you were bullish on Metaplanet.
I am.
Nothing has fundamentally changed with my thesis around it. I have been interested in it because of the arbitrage they have in the Japanese markets, and that has not changed at all.
It has just taken longer for them to ramp up the preferreds compared to MSTR and Strive, which are doing fantastic right now.
I am bullish on all of these companies, but nothing has really changed with Metaplanet.
In fact, I think one of the takeaways here is that, historically, when the narrative is much lower, those have often been fantastic times to buy.
My goal with all of this is just to present the data as I see it. I am not trying to give any investment advice here.
I just think it is really interesting to watch the narratives play out across the Bitcoin treasury space in particular.
And right now, there is a huge deviation between MSTR and Metaplanet, arguably larger than has ever existed since Metaplanet really came to market and became a more interesting Bitcoin treasury strategy.
