I just pulled open all my sentiment charts and came across something I didn’t expect.
I’m generally pretty optimistic, but apparently most people aren’t right now.
So I aggregated sentiment across Bitcoin users… everything from myself to people like Michael Saylor, and basically everyone in between across the network. What I’m looking at is a chart that tracks aggregate optimism over time: the language people use, the narratives they’re pushing, the tone of conversations.
Normally, I smooth this data out a bit so you can see the broader trend (whether the market is leaning more optimistic or pessimistic broadly). But this time I kept the smoothing to a minimum because the raw data showed something interesting.
We are dropping HARD in terms of average optimism across Bitcoin X.
And that’s happening even while price has been strong and companies like MSTR have been performing well.
Mood-wise, though, things are low. Not just slightly low… we’re talking levels that are lower than what we saw back in November 2022, when Bitcoin was under $17K.
You have to go pretty far back, into 2020, even 2019, to find comparable readings.
So for whatever reason, people are very bearish right now.
And yeah, at first glance that sounds negative.
It’s actually the opposite.
You don’t want everyone to be optimistic.
That’s usually when you should start getting cautious (when price has already run and people begin to overestimate what comes next).
When the crowd gets fearful, when the language shifts toward negativity, when people start leaning bearish, that’s historically when you’re in a better position to be bullish.
I don’t know what price is going to do next. I’ll actually be at the Bitcoin conference next week, so I might be a bit checked out.
But I wanted to share this because, to me, it’s a genuinely optimistic signal.
Especially with price sitting near short-term holder cost basis and other key levels people are watching closely.
It’s a strange setup, but a potentially interesting one.
And it feels like we could be heading into a pretty fun stretch.
