After my last video, a lot of people asked whether there are other cohorts worth tracking beyond long-time Bitcoin OGs. The answer is yes, and one of the more interesting comparisons comes from looking at “Bitcoin plebs,” or everyday participants who explicitly identify that way.
When you put these two groups side by side, their behavior reveals a subtle but meaningful divergence in sentiment.
For this analysis, I define OGs as participants who have been active in Bitcoin since before 2015 and have consistently posted over time. That consistency gives a reliable signal for tracking language and mood. On the other side are the plebs (generally newer, more average users, smaller accounts, etc) who embody the “stay humble, stack sats” ethos. While they represent a broader base of the network, their data history is shorter, which makes their shifts in sentiment particularly interesting.
What stands out is how differently these groups respond during key market moments.
During major run-ups, OGs tend to become significantly more optimistic than plebs. This suggests a level of conviction or pattern recognition built from prior cycles. In contrast, as the market approaches all-time highs, we often see the opposite effect: plebs reach peak optimism, sometimes exceeding anything seen in their prior data, while OG sentiment becomes more muted.
This divergence becomes even more interesting in the current environment.
Recently, sentiment among plebs has been trending downward with less optimism, less activity, and fewer signals of engagement compared to prior peaks.
Meanwhile, OGs continue to use consistently optimistic language, largely unaffected by the same shifts. It’s not that one group is “right,” but the difference in behavior is notable.
In most domains, we tend to give more weight to those with longer experience. Bitcoin may not be an exception. OGs have lived through multiple cycles of hype, drawdowns, and recovery. They’ve seen sentiment extremes before, and their reactions (while not predictive) may carry informational value.
At the very least, they offer a different lens.
My key takeaway is understanding that sentiment across the network isn’t uniform.
Not everyone is reacting the same way at the same time. And right now, the people who have been here the longest appear far less shaken than the average participant.
I personally think this is worth paying attention to.
