I like that you take off all the emotional clothes and standing there in its birthday suit is the data. The sexy data all naked and alluring baring its soul willing to tell you whatever you want to know.
This has been one of my primary goals with this work. Sentiment is interesting on it's own, but contrasting it to other cohorts or reducing the underlying "bitcoin noise" make it extremely high signal IMO.
As usual, I feel like I can "sense" what you're saying from spending (too much) time on X. It aligns with my gut. It registers as "true."
In my experience that Strategy investors are pretty unflappable. I think as a group they have the lowest time preference and deepest understanding of Bitcoin's economics/pricing dynamics of any Bitcoiner subset. They also take a disproportionate amount of shit, IMO. Especially from the fundies.
I feel like this goes against some of the more traditional narratives of the Fundamentalists, who consider themselves to understand Bitcoin more deeply than the Capitalists.
I used to even think this was true myself.
But you can watch the emotional responses and narrative shifts after these events, and see that the Capitalists were less shocked by them. They mapped in with their pre-existing worldview slightly better.
They still could be wrong about all sorts of other things, but I think they handled the recent turbulence very gracefully.
Very cool to see the BTC vs MSTR holder distinction like this
Curious how much of the recovery from the June trough in MSTR sentiment can be attributed to mean reversion (ie of course there was not going to be a death spiral) vs Strategy intentionally stacking cash to fix sentiment themselves
I guess it doesn't actually matter much, the end is the same. But also bought some MSTR myself as well
I'm certainly curious about the "stacking cash" narrative (or other variations) as I'm quite curious how it's been received by the average investor.
I think you're likely onto something in that we've mean reverted after much higher fear in mid-June.
I also find it interesting how proactive they've become and how much more frequently Saylor is talking about "sentiment" publically as they are clearly trying to improve it.
He definitely seems keen on hammering the sentiment point, Phong too. I get it, even though I'm in the minority of people who a) dont need to see much cash in a reserve at all and b) completely agreed w their decision earlier this year to pay off that big chunk of the converts. For me, billions of liquid bitcoin is enough of a backstop to be comfortable, but that also means he doesnt need to worry about my demand for STRC or the common
And, though at first i thought it was too on the nose, I think the fact that everything they've done has been directly aligned with what S&P laid out in their issuer credit rating last year points to them having a (lol) strategy in place to reach a terminal velocity over the coming years. If that's the case, having a huge pile of casb sitting around becomes boring and safe, which everyone else wants.
I am also in that minority of people, but I can also understand that he need to do what the market demands of him.
As much as Bitcoiners have been his primary shareholders, there are larger forces in the market that he must also satisfy if he wants to get into the S&P.
I don't love it, but I don't disagree with their (also lol) strategy around all of this.
From a narrative perspective, I do think killing the "we'll never sell our Bitcoin" was a massive win.
The game theory in one line: Saylor is playing “we can walk away” against a counterparty that also can’t easily afford the fight — MSCI’s paying customers include the very fund managers holding $9B of MSTR, and January proved those customers push back. Both sides declaring independence while furiously negotiating is how you know the October 16 outcome is genuinely live, not predetermined. The tweet is a bargaining chip. Price it as one.
It's a really interesting scenario and I'm curious to see how it plays out. I don't know that I have a really well constructed opinion on it quite yet, but I'll likely dive in deeper this week.
I think he’s right and any short term down pressure on price before October 16 will be a bonus . I also think all his detractors over the Bip110 will admire his stand against the tradFi market parameters and he will regain standing among the plebs
I like that you take off all the emotional clothes and standing there in its birthday suit is the data. The sexy data all naked and alluring baring its soul willing to tell you whatever you want to know.
Well this is my new favorite analogy 🤣
Appreciate the kind words.
This has been one of my primary goals with this work. Sentiment is interesting on it's own, but contrasting it to other cohorts or reducing the underlying "bitcoin noise" make it extremely high signal IMO.
LMAO the closer. Love it man.
As usual, I feel like I can "sense" what you're saying from spending (too much) time on X. It aligns with my gut. It registers as "true."
In my experience that Strategy investors are pretty unflappable. I think as a group they have the lowest time preference and deepest understanding of Bitcoin's economics/pricing dynamics of any Bitcoiner subset. They also take a disproportionate amount of shit, IMO. Especially from the fundies.
It's true.
I feel like this goes against some of the more traditional narratives of the Fundamentalists, who consider themselves to understand Bitcoin more deeply than the Capitalists.
I used to even think this was true myself.
But you can watch the emotional responses and narrative shifts after these events, and see that the Capitalists were less shocked by them. They mapped in with their pre-existing worldview slightly better.
They still could be wrong about all sorts of other things, but I think they handled the recent turbulence very gracefully.
Great read. Cold storage stacking aside, Ive unironically begun aggressively adding MSTR to my Roth IRA about a month ago lol sub $100 is a gift
Thank you very much. It's been brutal for them, but all the positive price momentum despite all the boredom and FUD has me feeling quite bullish.
Very cool to see the BTC vs MSTR holder distinction like this
Curious how much of the recovery from the June trough in MSTR sentiment can be attributed to mean reversion (ie of course there was not going to be a death spiral) vs Strategy intentionally stacking cash to fix sentiment themselves
I guess it doesn't actually matter much, the end is the same. But also bought some MSTR myself as well
I'm certainly curious about the "stacking cash" narrative (or other variations) as I'm quite curious how it's been received by the average investor.
I think you're likely onto something in that we've mean reverted after much higher fear in mid-June.
I also find it interesting how proactive they've become and how much more frequently Saylor is talking about "sentiment" publically as they are clearly trying to improve it.
He definitely seems keen on hammering the sentiment point, Phong too. I get it, even though I'm in the minority of people who a) dont need to see much cash in a reserve at all and b) completely agreed w their decision earlier this year to pay off that big chunk of the converts. For me, billions of liquid bitcoin is enough of a backstop to be comfortable, but that also means he doesnt need to worry about my demand for STRC or the common
And, though at first i thought it was too on the nose, I think the fact that everything they've done has been directly aligned with what S&P laid out in their issuer credit rating last year points to them having a (lol) strategy in place to reach a terminal velocity over the coming years. If that's the case, having a huge pile of casb sitting around becomes boring and safe, which everyone else wants.
I am also in that minority of people, but I can also understand that he need to do what the market demands of him.
As much as Bitcoiners have been his primary shareholders, there are larger forces in the market that he must also satisfy if he wants to get into the S&P.
I don't love it, but I don't disagree with their (also lol) strategy around all of this.
From a narrative perspective, I do think killing the "we'll never sell our Bitcoin" was a massive win.
The one-sentence encapsulation of this idea came from one of Saylor's answers during the Q&A after the Q2 earnings:
"Sometimes to buy the most Bitcoin you need to buy less Bitcoin" (paraphrase).
I think he's right, the narrative look just isn't great, but I'd expect that it'll prove useful in the long term and give even more optionality.
Never a dull day for Strategy 😂
The game theory in one line: Saylor is playing “we can walk away” against a counterparty that also can’t easily afford the fight — MSCI’s paying customers include the very fund managers holding $9B of MSTR, and January proved those customers push back. Both sides declaring independence while furiously negotiating is how you know the October 16 outcome is genuinely live, not predetermined. The tweet is a bargaining chip. Price it as one.
It's a really interesting scenario and I'm curious to see how it plays out. I don't know that I have a really well constructed opinion on it quite yet, but I'll likely dive in deeper this week.
How do you think it plays out?
I think he’s right and any short term down pressure on price before October 16 will be a bonus . I also think all his detractors over the Bip110 will admire his stand against the tradFi market parameters and he will regain standing among the plebs
Agreed, he just has to deal with some temporary pain here in the short run.